China Research Center

- Overview

The China Research Center promotes understanding of Greater China based on in-depth research and experience. Center Associates (freelance) are experts in Greater China's history, contemporary politics, science, technology, economics, business environment, language, culture and media, working to build bridges between EITA and Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau and Hong Kong.

China’s rapid advancements in technology, green energy, and infrastructure have made China Research a critical field of study globally. Both Western nations and the Global South are heavily analyzing China's development model, though they often do so through different strategic lenses. 

Key Drivers of Global Interest:

• Green Technology Leadership: China now leads global production in electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels. Academics and policymakers study how China scaled these industries so rapidly.
• Digital Innovation: Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, 5G/6G telecommunications, quantum computing, and digital payment ecosystems are shifting the center of tech innovation eastward.
• Infrastructure and Connectivity: Programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serve as major case studies for infrastructure-driven economic growth.
• Alternative Development Models: Many countries in the Global South look to China’s modernization as a blueprint for lifting millions out of poverty without strictly following Western economic frameworks.

- The Weaponized World Economy

The weaponization of economics between the United States, the European Union, and China has escalated into a defining structural conflict of the global economy. 

Driven by concerns over supply chain dominance, national security, and massive industrial overcapacity, Western powers have deployed sweeping economic weapons. In response, Beijing has shifted away from purely defensive measures, leveraging its own formidable economic leverage to fight back fiercely. 

1. The Western Strategy: Securitizing the Market: 

The US and EU have increasingly integrated trade policy with national security, using access to their massive consumer markets as a geopolitical tool:

• The United States Campaign: Under aggressive trade policies, Washington has launched intense tariff rounds - including baseline tariffs hitting as high as 104% before temporary truces - and deployed Section 301 investigations into Chinese overcapacity and supply chains. The US has additionally threatened severe secondary sanctions under an "economic D-Day campaign" against entities bypassing Western systems.
• The European Union Pivot: Facing a staggering €1 billion-a-day trade deficit with China, Brussels has moved toward an offensive posture. The EU has imposed significant duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles, issued major regulatory fines, and drafted the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) to effectively block heavily subsidized Chinese green technology from public procurement. 

2. China's Fierce Fightback: 

Rather than succumbing to Western trade pressure, China has actively turned the West's own economic weapons against them: 

• Critical Minerals Chokehold: China’s most potent leverage lies in its dominance over green tech and technology supply chains. Beijing has repeatedly weaponized global dependencies by imposing strict export controls and bans on rare-earth minerals and magnets, which are absolutely vital for European and American automotive, defense, and high-tech manufacturing. 
• Targeted Agricultural and Market Bans: China has intentionally shifted massive state procurement contracts away from American suppliers. During peak tariff standoffs, Beijing canceled US soybean import licenses and redirected multi-billion-dollar purchases to South American markets like Brazil, leaving US crops to rot. 
• Regulatory Asymmetric Warfare: China has increasingly targeted Western corporations using domestic antitrust probes, security audits, and regulatory pressure. Companies like Google, DuPont, Nvidia, and Qualcomm have faced mounting bureaucratic hurdles within China as part of Beijing's retaliation playbook.
• Export Diversification: By flooding non-Western markets with its state-supported overcapacity, China has expanded its economic sphere of influence. China has successfully decoupled from its historical reliance on the US market by positioning itself as the dominant trade partner across ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.

3. The Path Forward: Managed Confrontation: 

•  According to an analysis on Eurasia Review, "US-EU relations have shifted from traditional trade disputes to ‘managed confrontation," illustrated by the 2025 framework agreement that limits tariffs while leaving deeper conflicts over technology, regulation, industrial policy, subsidies... unresolved.” 
• While temporary truces and consultation windows have prevented total global economic collapse, the systemic structural imbalances remain unaddressed. The world is actively splintering into a fractured, "selective globalization" model where supply chains and technology ecosystems operate under parallel, politically aligned blocs.

- The Economic Warfare Levers for the United States, the European Union, and China 

Here is the breakdown of the Economic Warfare Levers for the United States, the European Union, and China outlined as statements:  

1. United States:

• Core Economic Weapon: The U.S. utilizes extreme baseline tariffs, aggressive Section 301 trade investigations, and the threat or execution of dollar-system exclusion.
• Primary Target Sector: These levers primarily target Chinese advanced manufacturing, specifically electric vehicles (EVs) and semiconductors.
• Ultimate Geopolitical Objective: The goal is to force shifts toward domestic demand while systematically crippling Beijing’s technological rise.

2. European Union:

• Core Economic Weapon: The EU deploys defensive measures including anti-subsidy duties, strict foreign investment screening, and "Made in Europe" procurement rules.
• Primary Target Sector: The strategy targets overproduced Chinese green-tech, batteries, and unsafe e-commerce goods.
• Ultimate Geopolitical Objective: The overarching aim is to de-risk critical supply chains and shield collapsing European industries from subsidized competition.

3. China: 

• Core Economic Weapon: China relies on a combination of comprehensive export controls and aggressive market blockade strategies.
• Primary Target Sector: Its primary targets are the supply of global rare earths, the aerospace sector, and U.S. agricultural exports.
• Ultimate Geopolitical Objective: Beijing seeks to compel Western powers to roll back tariffs and ensure foreign markets remain open to Chinese goods.

- Can the U.S. and EU Survive without China?

If China achieves complete manufacturing independence, the United States and Europe will focus on high-value services, advanced technologies, and a network of allied manufacturing partnerships rather than mass-producing everyday consumer goods. 

1. The Shift to High-Value Sectors:

• Services and Intellectual Property: Western economies will lean deeper into software, artificial intelligence (AI), finance, biotechnology, and aerospace design, where profit margins stem from innovation rather than physical assembly.
• Specialized High-Tech Production: The U.S. and Europe will maintain strict control over critical niches they still dominate - such as advanced semiconductor equipment and specialized defense systems—while relying on partial, selective engagement rather than total economic isolation. 

2. Allied Scale and Diversified Hubs:

• The "Allied Network": Rather than trying to out-scale China alone, the U.S. and Europe are building trading blocs with partner nations like India, Mexico, Japan, and Vietnam to secure alternative supply chains. 
• De-risking over Decoupling: Policymakers in Brussels and Washington recognize that a full break from Chinese manufacturing is economically impractical, favoring instead a "de-risking" strategy that protects only sensitive national security sectors.

- China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive global infrastructure and economic development strategy launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), sometimes called the New Silk Road, is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever undertaken. 

A series of development and investment initiatives launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013 initially aimed to connect East Asia and Europe through physical infrastructure. In the decade since, the program has expanded to Africa, Oceania and Latin America, significantly expanding China's economic and political influence. 

Some analysts see the project as a troubling extension of China's rising power, and opposition has grown in some countries as the cost of many projects has soared. At the same time, the U.S. shares some Asian countries' concerns that the Belt and Road Initiative could become a Trojan horse for China-led regional development and military expansion.

1. Goals: 

The Vision: The project mimics the ancient Silk Road. It connects Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America through a network of land and sea routes.

• Two Main Prongs: It includes the overland "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the maritime "21st Century Maritime Silk Road". 
• Core Objectives: Goals include improving trade, building hard infrastructure like railways and ports, boosting financial integration, and expanding China's global influence.

2. Recent Shifts and Scale: 

• Record Engagement: BRI financial engagement remains high, with activity shifting toward green technology, manufacturing, and industrial supply chains rather than just heavy construction.
• New Focus: Funding models have adapted to economic changes, moving away from massive mega-loans toward smaller, high-value industrial and digital partnerships.

[South China Sea Map - Nations Online]

- The 9-Dash Line (or The 11-Dash Line), The South China Sea 

The nine-dash line, also known as the eleven-dash line in Taiwan, is a set of line segments on various maps claimed by the People's Republic of China (PRC, "Mainland China") and the Republic of China. 

The disputed areas include the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, Dongsha Island and Verwick Shoal, Macclesfield Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal. Some places have been reclaimed by the People's Republic of China, the Republic of China, and Vietnam. 

The People’s Daily of the People’s Republic of China uses a dotted line or the South China Sea dotted line, and the government of the Republic of China uses an eleven-dash line . ‘eleven-dash line’). 

The government of the Republic of China first published a 1946 map on December 1, 1947, showing a U-shaped eleven-dash line. 

In 1952, as relations with North Vietnam warmed, Mao Zedong of the People's Republic of China decided to remove two dashes in the Gulf of Tonkin. However, the ROC government still uses the eleven-dash line. 

In 2013, some people were surprised by the tenth dash east of Taiwan, but it was on the map of the People's Republic of China as early as 1984. The government of the People's Republic of China does not always use this line when asserting its sovereignty. It doesn't clarify how the dashes are connected and which features are specifically included or excluded. 

On July 12, 2016, an arbitral tribunal established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea concluded that China’s historic claims to the high seas would have no legal effect if they exceeded the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. 

One of the arguments is that China does not exercise exclusive control over these waters and resources. However, the Tribunal cannot rule on issues of territorial sovereignty. Governments of more than two dozen countries have called for the ruling to be respected. It has been rejected by eight governments, including the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China.

- Can India Replace China as a Manufacturing Hub?

While India has the potential to become a significant manufacturing hub, it's unlikely to completely replace China in this role. 

India's strengths lie in its large, skilled workforce, lower labor costs, and a growing domestic market. However, China's established infrastructure, strong supply chains, and decades of experience in manufacturing give it a significant advantage. 

1. India's Strengths:

• Large and skilled workforce: India has a vast, relatively young workforce with a growing pool of skilled workers, making it attractive to companies looking for labor-intensive production.
• Lower labor costs: Labor costs in India are generally lower than in China, potentially making it more cost-effective for some manufacturing operations.
• Growing domestic market: India's large and rapidly growing domestic market provides a significant opportunity for manufacturers to sell their products locally.
• Government support: The Indian government has implemented policies like "Make in India" and "Production-Linked Incentive" to attract foreign investment and boost domestic manufacturing.

2. China's Advantages:

• Established infrastructure: China has invested heavily in infrastructure, including roads, ports, and railways, which facilitate efficient manufacturing and logistics. 
• Strong supply chains: China boasts a well-established network of suppliers and a highly integrated manufacturing ecosystem, allowing for quick responses to market demands. 
• Experience and expertise: China has decades of experience in manufacturing, giving it a competitive edge in terms of production efficiency and quality. 
• Scale and economies of scale: China's massive manufacturing base allows it to achieve economies of scale, leading to lower production costs.

3. Challenges for India:

• Infrastructure gaps: India's infrastructure, particularly in areas like ports and transportation networks, lags behind China's, potentially hindering its ability to compete globally. 
• Supply chain challenges: India's supply chains are less developed than China's, making it harder for manufacturers to source components and materials efficiently. 
• Logistical bottlenecks: India's logistics and transportation networks are still struggling to keep pace with the needs of a growing manufacturing sector. 
• Regulatory hurdles: India's regulatory environment can be complex and bureaucratic, making it challenging for businesses to set up and operate factories.

While India is making strides in attracting foreign investment and developing its manufacturing sector, it's unlikely to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub in the near future. 

China's established infrastructure, strong supply chains, and vast experience give it a significant edge. However, India's strengths, coupled with ongoing infrastructure development and policy reforms, could position it as a major player in global manufacturing, potentially becoming a "China Plus One" strategy for companies seeking to diversify their supply chains. 

[More to come ...]